Illicit Small Arms Prices – Countries Dataset: Codebook v.2017-01

Abstract:

This codebook documents variables in a dataset described in Marsh, McDougal, Khan, and Lison (2017) as the “Illicit Small Arms Prices—Countries” (iSAP-C) dataset. The dataset is one of two (the other being the “Illicit Small Arms Prices—Transactions”, or iSAP-T, dataset, documented in SADO Working Paper 201604-02) to come out of a joint effort of the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers (NISAT) and the Small Arms Data Observatory (SADO). The iSAP-T has an observational unit of arm(s) sold in a single transaction, whilst the iSAP-C, which derives from the iSAP-T, has the more standard country-year observational unit.

Authors:

NICHOLAS MARSH
Peace Research Institute Oslo

TOPHER L. MCDOUGAL
Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego

ISHTIAQ AHMED KHAN

JORGE LISON

Additional files:
SADO-WPS_201701_02_iSAP-C (CVS) (country-year dataset, CVS format [3 mb])
SADO-WPS_201701_02_iSAP-C (STATA/.dta) (country-year dataset, DTAformat [1 mb])

SADO-WPS_201701_03_iSAP-C-Codebook (country-year dataset codebook, PDF [304 kb])

Illicit Small Arms Prices – Transactions Dataset: Codebook v.2017-01

Abstract:

This codebook documents variables in a dataset described in Marsh, McDougal, and Khan (2017) as the “Illicit Small Arms Prices—Transactions” dataset (iSAP-T). The dataset is one of two (the other being the “Illicit Small Arms Prices—Countries”, or iSAP-C, dataset, documented in SADO Working Paper 201604-03) to come out of a joint effort of the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers (NISAT) and the Small Arms Data Observatory (SADO). The iSAP-T has an observational unit of arm(s) sold in a single transaction, whilst the iSAP-C, which derives from the iSAP-T, has the more standard country-year observational unit. The iSAP-T has the advantage that its observations are all directly reported and documented; the data presented is gathered entirely on the basis of verifiable observation.

Authors:

NICHOLAS MARSH
Peace Research Institute Oslo

TOPHER L. MCDOUGAL
Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego

ISHTIAQ AHMED KHAN

JORGE LISON

Additional files:
SADO-WPS_201701_02_iSAP-T (CVS) (transactions dataset, CVS format [14 mb])
SADO-WPS_201701_02_iSAP-T (STATA/.dta) (transactions dataset, DTA format [1 mb])

SADO-WPS_201701_02_iSAP-T-Codebook (transactions dataset codebook, PDF format [272 kb])

Estimating the Size of the Illicit Small Arms Economy in San Diego

Abstract:

Illicit economies are notoriously difficult to detect and quantify for the simple reason that participants have incentives to keep their activities clandestine. This paper outlines and implements a method for estimating the markets for illicit small arms, sex, and drugs as constituent components of the total cash economy for the San Diego metropolitan area. The method has two parts: first it derives the total cash economy of San Diego; second it fits a model predicting that amount for each available year as a function of index variables for three distinct illicit markets (small arms, sex, and drugs) and the licit cash economy. It estimates that the market for cash-based purchases of small arms in San Diego in 2013 was $920 million – slightly larger than the illicit sex industry, and much smaller than both the market for illicit drugs and the licit cash economy. Limitations of the method are discussed, including the potential for better proxy variables to improve reliability.

Abstract:

TOPHER L. MCDOUGAL
Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego

SADO-WPS_SD-SALW-size_McDougal

Ammunition Leakage from the Military to Civilian Markets: Market Price Evidence from Haiti 2004-2012

Abstract:

The rapid increase in the accessibility of firearms and ammunition represents a key factor in the destabilization of many countries. It is also commonly associated with an escalation in the intensity and organization of collective and interpersonal violence. In some cases, arms are illegally transferred from one state to another, while in others weapons are diverted from existing stores. In this article the authors consider the leakage from military and civilian markets as an important source of ammunition available to civilians in Haiti. We employ a unique section-quarterly panel of ammunition prices over the period July 2004-July 2012. This data is combined with publicly available monthly data on authorized ammunition shipments to the country registered by the United Nations (UN) and Haitian National Police (HNP). We also consider annual data on homicide rates and UN resolutions related to Haitian military personnel and civilian police. We use a standard time-series OLS model to show that the exogenous shocks of UN- and HNP-ordered ammunition exert measurable downward pressure on civilian ammunition markets, which we calculate in terms of adjusted predictions and partial elasticities of demand. These effects constitute solid econometric evidence that the firewall that should in theory separate military and civilian markets in Haiti has partially broken down. We conclude with a suggestion for using this model to help estimate the specific size of the leakage.

 

Authors:

TOPHER L. MCDOUGAL
Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego
Corresponding author

ATHENA KOLBE
University of Michigan

ROBERT MUGGAH
Igarapé Institute

NICHOLAS MARSH
Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)

SADO-WPS_Haiti-ammunition_McDougal-Kolbe-Muggah-Marsh